The risk of a war between the EU and Russia is “very high” this year, says Major General Peter Vorhofer. There is a threat of both an open military fight and a covert one. In addition, at least 20 years of ongoing unrest are expected. Minister Tanner (ÖVP) committed herself to rearmament.

The Austrians have to prepare for a long period of tensions, crises, chaos. The new time of military “disorder” will accompany the world and Austria for “at least two decades,” said Major General Vorhofer at the presentation of the “risk picture 2024” of the Ministry of Defense in Vienna. Military conflicts are more likely to increase, “because war is back as a dimension of politics.”

Presentation of the “Risk Picture 2024 – World out of Joints” with Federal Minister Klaudia TannerHBF/ Carina Karlovits

The military strategist Günter Hofbauer added: “One thing is clear: It will be faster and it will be more.” At the moment, you are in a “grey zone”: “We are in a phase where it is not yet war, but also no longer peace.” This makes it necessary to “make the federal army capable of war again” as well. After all, it takes a decade to build an air defense. In 10 to 15 years, the Ukraine war will also be “only one of the conflicts”.

Tanner: Decision for conscription was “right and far-reaching”

Defense Minister Klaudia Tanner (ÖVP) praised the billion-dollar armament package for the federal army, which is secured by a corresponding law. It will continue over more legislative periods. The minister was also pleased that Austria had not introduced a professional army. In the referendum in 2013, the Austrians had made a very correct and far-reaching decision. This can now be seen “where other states are thinking of highlighting conscription again”.

The Federal Army at a large-scale exercise in VorarlbergAPA/STIPLOVSEK DIETMAR

Now it is also important to strengthen the “spiritual national defense”. The future generation in particular would value life in a democracy too little. The concept of comprehensive national defense should therefore be anchored in the curricula. The publication “Risikobild 2024”, in which dozens of experts from different disciplines have worked, should also be made available to schools and universities.

There is a threat of supply chain disruptions, migration flows, cyber attacks

In his lecture, Major General Vorhofer listed a total of eight risks that are particularly relevant to Austria, including the disruption of supply chains due to conflicts, the new migration flows, cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns, the absence of which would be “extremely unusual” in the current super election year. Finally, the expert also mentioned attempts by external actors to weaken European integration “through targeted attacks and coercion.”

Federal Minister Klaudia Tanner is committed to the armament of the Federal Army.HBF/ Carina Karlovits

The defense policy director of the ministry, Arnold Kammel, pointed out the upcoming European elections, which should not be “underestimated.” It must therefore be the concern to keep the transition phase around the European elections “as short as possible”.

Assessment of the real dangers should become “harder”

In 2014, Europe should have reacted at the latest, said Günter Hofbauer with regard to Russia. They were “seduced by not recognizing any political intentions in Moscow.” Now you know: These intentions could “change at very short notice”. Therefore, the individual actors should be evaluated according to their respective military and other potentials in the future.

Austria is preparing for tougher times. In the picture: ÖVP Minister Klaudia Tanner during a troop visit.APA/BUNDESHEER/CARINA KARLOVITS

“If the world is out of joint, then we shouldn’t do it ourselves.” She thus broke a lance for Austria’s participation in European defense projects. “I am convinced that these risks can only be countered through cooperation.” She explicitly mentioned the “Sky Shield” air defense project, which was fiercely fought by the FPÖ as a breach of neutrality. In view of ballistic missiles and drones in Ukraine, there should be “no gap” over Austria. “I am very grateful to Germany for this initiative, in which so many European states are involved.”